中央和地方的矛盾，公开化了
<section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; visibility: visible;">今天财政部部长刘昆接受采访时表示，坚持中央不救助原则，“谁家的孩子谁抱走”。</span></section><p></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; visibility: visible;">打破政府兜底预期，分类推进融资平台公司市场化转型，推动形成政府和企业界限清晰。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; visibility: visible;">这话基本上就差点名了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; visibility: visible;">没错，说的就是你，城投公司。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; visibility: visible;">现在国内，城投公司是一种超脱自然法则的存在：</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">你说它是政府的平台吧，其实不算，它最多只是企业编制，有限责任公司，只承担注册资本内的损失；</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">你说它是一般的融资平台吧，但它却有政府背景，拿来的钱基本都进了政府的口袋；</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">它用了政府的信用，为政府做事，但是长期以来却不属于政府编制。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">搞得跟西厂一样。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">比如谈到中国政府负债的时候，公开数据只会显示中央和地方的债务总和是59万亿，负债率不到50%，远低于国际通行的60%警戒线标准。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但是如果你再把各地城投公司的负债一起算上，2021年我国城投公司有息债务余额高达56万亿，那么2022年怎么算都超过60万亿了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">那么两者相加的话，中国的总负债率超过120万亿，负债率100%，超过了GDP一年的总和。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但是城投公司的债务，从始至终就没算进过表内负债。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">这次财政部再次强调，意味着中央大概率是不承认城投债是地方债，这一切都是企业的自主行为，如果城投公司负债累累无法运作，那么破产清算就是市场化的一部分。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">让地方自己去处理，中央不做兜底行为。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">只是地方能怎么处理？</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">地方有钱的话，还会让这些城投公司违约或者破产么？</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">这就引申出来一个新的问题，如果中央兜底，会怎么兜？</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">我在之前的文章里也提到，现在地方债务之所以这么厉害，主要是因为买房的供应链断了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">地方，银行，城投，房企，都是一条绳上的蚂蚱，唯一可以解救他们的只有买房人去接盘。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">关键是老百姓还真的有钱，你看2022年，新增居民存款累计超过16万亿，如果这些钱拿出来救这串蚂蚱于水火之中，那该多好啊。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">所以政策拼命呼吁买房，特别是买一手房，真的是爱国行为。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但现在这个状态吧，特别是三四线城市，牌子都做瘫了，动不动就烂尾楼，你让韭菜怎么敢接盘。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">没人买房，这些负债随着利息的的翻滚，就会越来越沉，违约是最终的宿命。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">买房人可以做等等党，但是这些债务等不起来。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">要么像前两天遵义那家城投公司的银行贷款重组，展期二十年，就是给了各大城投公司最好的效仿模板。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但这种事情多了以后，银行这个冤大头也扛不住，最终只能撕破脸皮，破罐子破摔。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">要么城投公司爆雷，银行坏账，储户或者投资人承担后果。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">再或者，央行发行基础货币购买这些债务，债务货币化，然后推高通货膨胀，让全国人民一起承担后果。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">不过这次财政部强调了，中央不兜底，这就意味着最后一种方式从明面上看，暂时不会执行。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">至于未来类似的事情多了，会不会倒逼，这就讲不清楚了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">在实际操作中，地方未必会把中央的文件当一回事。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">比如疫情封控期间的一刀切行为，中央已经反复强调，但地方显然是有恃无恐的，我行我素；</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">再比如2021年10月，财政部印发《关于加强“三公”经费管理严控一般性支出的通知》，其中提到“严禁通过举债储备土地，不得通过国企购地等方式虚增土地出让收入，不得巧立名目虚增财政收入，弥补财政收入缺口。”</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但实际上，没有任何一个地方把这份文件当回事，第三轮集中供地的时候，全国20个重点城市国企拿地比例超过87%，郑州甚至100%城投拿地。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">这不是“通过国企购地等方式虚增土地出让收入”，是什么？</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">财政部在文件里说，“发现一起、处理一起、问责一起”，但至今没有看到任何城市因此被问责。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">所以这次财政部的文件更像是一种警示，意思是中央是知道地方的一大堆烂账，但是中央有中央的原则，坚决不兜底，你们现在可以自己想办法了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">你还真别说，地方也不是没有办法。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">第一种办法，抛弃城投公司，完全让它市场化，该破产的破产，跟当初放弃P2P一个套路。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">我觉得这种可能性是比较高的，因为现在中央的文件显然也有这个意思，地方只要顺着杆子往上爬就行了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">但是会对地方的信誉造成不可挽回的打击，到时候再想融资可就难了。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">第二种办法，紧衣缩食，开源是不可能了，节流还是可以做到的。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">你看最近鹤岗，河北好多城市停止供暖的事情一直在热搜，再比如一些城市的公共交通停止运营。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">以后这类公共服务停止的事情会越来越多。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px;">最终是谁来买单，也就不言而喻了。</span></section><section mp-original-font-size="16" mp-original-line-height="24" style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); letter-spacing: 1px;">来源：七叔东山再起</span></section></section><p></p><p><br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.dafuping.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_x41" id="wcn_editor_css"/>
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